Venezuela's oil industry is bleeding — and its collapse could mark the end of President Nicolas Maduro

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April 27, 2018 8:31 PM

President Nicolas Maduro could be overthrown if Venezuela's oil industry keeps declining, according to some analysts.

President Nicolas Maduro is widely seen as winning reelection this month — the Venezuelan government has been accused of rigging elections in the past.
But some experts don't see Maduro holding power past 2018, even if he is reelected.
A collapsing oil industry could lead to Maduro being overthrown.

Given the far reaching grasp of the Venezuelan government, there's a good chance President Nicolas Maduro will hold power through 2018 — but after the presidential election could be a different story.

Analysts at Bank of America Merill Lynch expect the country's crude oil output to continue to slide, ending the year at 1.1 million barrels per day.

For starters, Venezuela is bleeding money. After defaulting on more than a been forced to focus on paying sovereign debtoperations are already falling apart.

A lack of crucial maintenance and repairs at PDVSA refineries have left them operating at a record-low utilization rate of 30%, according to analysis by BMI. And the

"The rise in value of Venezuela's crude basket has been met with declining output," Morgan Stanley analysts said. "Thus rising oil prices are unlikely to solve Venezuela's problems."

On top of that, PDVSA is facing a worker crisis that could further decrease output

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