Iran has scaled back its provocations towards the US — and some are crediting Trump's tough rhetoric

Iran has scaled back its provocations towards the US in multiple ways recently, including halting its harassment of US Navy ships and more.
Some of the pullback may be due to President Donald Trump's tough rhetoric.
But the reality may be more nuanced.

Iran has recently scaled back its provocations of the US in multiple ways — but no one is quite sure why.

Iranian fast boats haven't harassed a US Navy ship in about five months after repeatedly doing so for at least two years, according to the Wall Street Journal. Some military officials and outside analysts are giving at least some credit to the Trump administration.

Since January 2016, there were an average of more than two "unsafe or unprofessional" encounters each month, the Journal reports, citing US military officials. The most serious incident happened that January when two small US Navy ships drifted in Iranian waters, and the

Iran repeatedly blamed the confrontations on the US.

There are other signs Iran is pulling back from engaging the US.

Iran has been scaling back its testing of medium-range ballistic missiles, having tested only one since February 2017, according to a report from Behnam Ben Taleblu, senior Iran analyst at Foundation for Defense of Democracies.

President Donald Trump had been for months threatening to end sanctions relief stipulated in the Iran nuclear deal, but recently agreed to keep it intact for at least a few more months.

"I think they understand the administration's policy at this stage is to put the spotlight on Iranians and portray them as the source of all evil in the region," Vaez told the Journal.

“The Iranians are certainly part of the problem in the region, but they'd like to be portrayed as part of the solution, not just the problem," he said.

Taleblu, writing in the Foundation for Defense of Democracies report, notes that "since being put 'on notice' by the Trump administration in February 2017, Iran has reportedly only once conducted an MRBM test."

"It is highly likely that the administration’s threat intimidated Tehran, altering its flight-testing calculus," Taleblu writes. "In fact, a hardline Iranian outlet quoted an Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) official who complained that the SLV test was delayed due to fears over the potential American response."

The more nuanced reality

10. Iranian restraint shows... @ Ali Vaez

Iran has scaled back its provocations towards the US — and some are crediting Trump's tough rhetoric

The more nuanced reality

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