- After a slow start to the season, Cortana and Elo are on fire in recent weeks.
- The two models we're tracking have correctly picked 65% of the games this season.
- Cortana has nailed 76% of the games in the last seven weeks and Elo has correctly picked 73% over the last three weeks.
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The computer models are still on fire picking NFL games — here are their picks for Week 14
Two models predict who will win the games in Week 14 of the NFL.
The NFL season is now in Week 14, and the two computer models we are tracking are still on fire.
We took a look at two popular systems used to pick NFL games: Cortana, Microsoft's digital assistant, and Elo, the modeling system used by Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.
In both cases, the computers are picking outright winners and not against the spread. However, each gives a likelihood of a team's winning, which, in theory, could help measure the strength of certain lines.
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Both models have been on fire in recent weeks. Elo went 12-4 in Week 12 and is now 32-12 (73%) over the last three weeks and 123-69 (64%) overall. Cortana still has the overall lead, going 11-5 in Week 13. Cortana is 128-64 (67%) overall and 77-24 (76%) over the last seven weeks.
Here are the picks for Week 14, with each model's percent chance of winning in parentheses. Games in bold are where the two models disagree on who has the best chance to win. Point spreads are just for reference, via Vegas Insider as of Thursday morning.
Thursday
- New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) — FALCONS (Elo 56%), SAINTS (Cortana 61%)
Sunday
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- Detroit Lions at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (No line) — No pick (Elo 50%/50%), LIONS (Cortana 60%)
- Seattle Seahawks at Jacksonville Jaguars (-2.5) — SEAHAWKS (Elo 53%), JAGUARS (Cortana 55%)
- New York Jets (-1) at Denver Broncos — No pick (Elo 50%/50%), JETS (Cortana 57%)
Monday
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