Austin, Texas is most likely to get Amazon's $5 billion headquarters, according to the data

pulse

October 18, 2017 7:48 PM

Analysts from Moody's ranked cities based on their chances of meeting Amazon's requirements for HQ2. Here's one that could be a top contender.

Moody's Analytics ranked what it believes to be the top contenders for Amazon's second headquarters.
The analysts point to Austin, Texas as the most likely city, based on several of the company's requirements.
However, it is nearly impossible to guess exactly which city Amazon will pick.

More than 50 North American cities are hoping Amazon will pick them as the site for the company's second headquarters, dubbed HQ2. In perhaps the largest corporate offer to municipalities in modern American history, the e-commerce giant is promising 50,000 jobs and an investment of $5 billion in the campus's construction.

But only one city can win. Bids are due this Thursday, and Amazon plans to announce its pick in 2018.

To find a list of possible winners for HQ2, the

Still, it's nearly impossible right now to guess which city Amazon will choose. Moody's doesn't account for extra economic incentives that have now become valuable parts of some city bids. Newark, New Jersey, for example, is offering Amazon up to $7 billion in tax breaks over the next two decades if the company decides to build there. The report also doesn't consider the amount of available land for HQ2's construction.

Amazon has also laid out several requirements for cities, and it's hard to predict which ones the company will weigh more heavily than others. A large international airport — like in Atlanta, which makes the top 10 in Moody's report — might be especially important for HQ2. Or job growth in engineering and computer science could become the most significant point.

Or it might be land. Amazon wants to build an 8 million-square-foot campus, but it's possible the company might want some wiggle room to expand even larger in the future. A "cultural fit" is also subjective on Amazon's part.

In The City Observatory, economist Joe Cortwright argues that Amazon could have already made its choice long before the bid deadline.

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