A Goldman Sachs client poll finds 87% expect Trump to win the next election

The bank's strategists polled attendees at a conference this week and received an average of 160 responses to their questions.
Only 5% of respondents expect a US recession this year, 45% expect a bear market in 2021, and 67% expect the Federal Reserve to hold interest rates steady this year.
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Goldman Sachs surveyed dozens of its clients and found that the vast majority expect President Donald Trump to win a second term in office.

The banking titan's investment researchers polled attendees of its Global Strategy Conference in London this week, garnering an average of 160 responses to each of their questions. Asked whether Trump who was recently impeached by the House of Representatives and now faces a Senate trial will win the election this year, 87% of respondents said they expected him to triumph. The bank published its results in a research note on Thursday.

While the sample size is extremely small, and Goldman's clientele is definitely not representative of the American electorate, betting site Oddschecker gives similar odds of a Trump victory, at 4/5.

Goldman's US strategists haven't predicted who will win the election, but warned that if one party holds the House and Senate and Trump's 2017 tax cuts are rolled back, corporate earnings per share could drop by 7% next year a sharp deviation from their baseline estimate of a 5% rise.

The strategists also surveyed conference attendees on when the next US recession will hit. Only 5% said this year, while 35% are bracing for one in 2020, and 38% expect it in 2022. Similarly, Goldman's economists put the odds of a recession in the next 12 months at under 20%.

Goldman also polled the crowd on the stock market and the Federal Reserve.

About 60% of respondents expect US equities to return between 0% and 10% this year, but 45% predict a bear market in 2021. Goldman's strategists expect positive returns on equities in the coming months.

Meanwhile, more than two-thirds of respondents predicted the Fed would hold interest rates steady this year, after the central bank cut them three times last year. Only 4% expect it to raise rates.

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