Draws are more common in football matches than you think. The numbers vary depending on the league or tournament, but it’s always relatively high. For example, 1 in 4.2 games in the Premier League ends in a draw, while 1 in 3.6 ends as a draw in the Championship.
Top tips to predict a football match draw
Draws are not the most common outcome in football matches, but they are more common than in other sports. Learn how you can better predict them in betting.
It’s a significant enough number, so it’s no wonder that many football expert tips recommend betting on a draw in specific situations. But how do you predict a draw? You need to be able to do that, to a reasonable degree, if you want to make money off of a draw prediction.
So, let’s take a look at how you can do that and everything else of importance about betting on draws in football betting. Once you’ve read the piece, you’ll have all the help you need to make better football draw bets at a popular betting site like the ones listed on Takebet Nigeria.
How Is It Possible to Predict a Draw in a Football Match?
You’d be surprised, but determining whether a draw will happen in a football match is quite possible. Naturally, there is no sure-fire way to ensure you win a draw bet, but there are certainly enough methods to help you win more of these bets than usual.
Most of these methods revolve around odds, so let’s look at which betting odds point towards a draw occurring.
Which Betting Odds Are Showing a Match More Likely to Be a Draw?
First of all, you need to understand that bookies tend to change their odds based on what people are betting, not the likely outcome, at least not always. So, if people are mainly betting on either of the two teams winning their encounter, the odds on a draw will end up being much higher.
This is because the site will have to pay less if the odds are lower, so the more people are betting on an outcome, the lower the odds will be so the sportsbook doesn’t have to spend too much money if they win. Consequently, the site will increase the odds for the other market, in this case, the draw.
This is not really helpful for determining the correct score or finding which odds show a draw result, but it’s essential for understanding what the sportsbooks are doing. However, this doesn’t mean you shouldn’t be looking at specific odds.
One of the best indicators of a draw outcome is the over/under 2.5 goals betting market. If the odds are quite low on it, the bookie is expecting fewer goals for the match. Consequently, this means that a draw is more likely.
Additionally, you can also check the Correct Score bets. If the odds for 0-0 or 1-1 score are pretty low, then a draw is very likely.
You can also look at the odds for the home team to win and the away team to win. More specifically, you should look for markets where the odds are similar for both. When both a home and an away win are highly uncertain, the odds for two will be pretty similar. Consequently, this usually means that a draw is more likely.
Naturally, let’s not forget that you can simply look for draw markets with very low odds, as this usually means that a draw is very likely to occur. However, as you can expect, you won’t be able to win much from these bets, so they are not always practical.
The Best Strategy to Use for Draw Betting
Besides everything we’ve mentioned so far, you can also use specific strategies commonly used by punters who prefer betting on draws. You can use the betting on draw/odd total system, or maybe the Martingale draw strategy. However, only one strategy is described by most as being the very best for draw wagers — backing the draw.
This is the most popular strategy punters use, and the reasoning is simple. Most players tend to bet on wins, so less money is placed on draw bets. And as we’ve already stated, sportsbooks tend to place higher odds on markets that aren’t used enough.
So, even though the actual odds for a draw are more around 3.0 or even less, sportsbooks are more likely to push them to 4.0. This means that you can place at least three such bets and rely on winning only one to make a profit. Many tipsters do this all the time, and some of them place a lot more than just three such wagers.
How Many Football Matches End Up as a Draw?
It’s almost impossible to say with any certainty how many matches end in a draw, as the percentage is different across various leagues and championships. However, that doesn’t mean there aren’t any numbers for those specific leagues. Let’s take a look at how many matches end in a draw across some very popular football events:
- Ligue 1 — 25.80%
- Serie A — 24.80%
- Bundesliga — 24.40%
- Premier League — 24.20%
- La Liga — 23.40%
- Champions League — 23.20%
Naturally, these numbers are constantly changing, so if you want to start betting on draws by following specific leagues, it’s best to check what the stats say at the time of betting.
Alternatively, you can also search for football teams with the most draws, as there are always up-to-date stats. Statistics like these usually tell you about the draw percentage from the last dozen or so matches for those teams.
A Tip to Remember — Matches With Low xG (Expected Goals)
We’ve had a lot of tips, recommendations, and strategies, but we want to leave you with one crucial tip to remember and probably the best method to use when looking for matches that are most likely to end in a draw.
Look for one stat called xG or Expected Goals. Plenty of football prediction sites will display this number as it shows how teams have been playing before their match. It indicates the number of goals expected for their match based on these prior achievements. The lower the number, the lower the chances that either will score a goal and the higher the chances that the game will end in a draw.