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Will Ghana miss Asamoah Gyan against Egypt?

Pulse Sports' Fiifi Anaman looks at the stats to see if Black Stars captain Gyan's absence will be felt during the big 2018 World Cup qualifier against Egypt on November 13.

But it was no surprise.

On Tuesday, Gyan had a thigh problem while training with his club Al Ahli ahead of a UAE Gulf League game on Wednesday. The injury eventually ruled him out of the fixture - which Ahly won 6-0 against Hatta.

Speaking in an interview with UAE Portal 24, the 30-year-old confirmed that his time on the sidelines could extend beyond that single game, virtually ruling him out of the crucial Cairo clash.

“It will be very hard to participate in Ghana’s encounter against the Pharaohs [of Egypt] on November 13 in the 2018 World Cup qualifiers,” Gyan admitted.

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“I will have to undergo tests tomorrow under the supervision of the club’s medical team, to find out the extent of my injury and the duration of my time out but things do not look good at all,” he added.

Since Gyan declared himself unfit even before the tests and Ghana's squad announcement formally confirmed it, there has been an outbreak of panic and disappointment among the few fans who still feel an attachment to the Black Stars despite their recent struggles to attract public affection.

Many believe Gyan's absence basically kills Ghana's chances of getting anything out of a fixture that already looks incredibly difficult. Ghana go into the game on the back of a poor run of form: the team is without a win in its last four fixtures. On the opening day of the qualifiers, Avram Grant's charges put themselves on the back foot in Group E by dropping points at home with a goalless draw against Uganda. Egypt, meanwhile, secured a morale-boosting 2-1 win away at Congo Brazaville, shooting to the top of the group and accessing a psychological edge against their much anticipated match day two meeting with the team that denied them a place at the World Cup in Brazil four years ago.

Despite the widespread concerns and fears that have met Gyan's absence, will he actually be missed during the game at the Borg El Arab Stadium in Alexandria?

Well, apparently not.

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Hold your horses: this is not an opinion, but a analysis based on statistics.

Let's dive into the details, shall we?

First of all, let’s not be mistaken, this has nothing to do with Gyan's profile or pedigree, for that would be a gross miscalculation in analyzing his influence. His reputation as a game-changer is undoubted: he remains Ghana's record goalscorer with 48 goals in 95 games for Ghana since 2003, three of these goals interestingly coming against Egypt (one in a friendly in 2009 and two in the first leg of the 2014 World Cup Qualifying final knockout round).

But, zooming the lens into his recent form, it can be seen that Gyan's influence within the team hasn't been as strong as it once was. Against Uganda in Tamale, Gyan looked a disappointing shadow of his former self, putting up an uncharacteristically anonymous display.

Gyan, who turns 31 on November 22, has been plagued by injury problems since the beginning of last year. In fact, his fitness issues led to his club Shanghai SIPG almost cancelling multi-million dollar contract, eventually loaning him out to Al Ahly back in the UAE. For Ghana, this struggle has reduced his tally to a mere three goals since Avram Grant took over.

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Though one of these goals - against Algeria in the second Group game at Afcon 2015 - was heavily critical (it gave Ghana a lifeline following an opening day loss to Senegal) the rest of his goals weren't as important (they came in the form of a brace in a 7-1 mauling of Mauritius during Afcon 2017 qualifying last year).

Known primarily for his goals, it is ironical that Gyan is not even in the top four highest scorers for Ghana in the Grant era. Out of the 34 goals that Ghana has scored in 22 matches under the Israeli, Gyan has only managed to provide only 9%.

Nine percent: this is what Ghana will be missing, and surely, this isn’t substantial enough to qualify as a loss.

Not convinced? Okay, let’s spread the loss analysis a bit further. Apart from Gyan, Richmond Boakye Yiadom, Bernard Mensah, Albert Adomah and David Accam are the other Grant-era goal scorers who will be absent against Egypt. They have scored five goals between them. Add that to Gyan’s tally and that gives 8 goals, which constitutes 24% in all: meaning that, against the Pharaohs, Ghana will be missing people who have contributed less than a quarter of its goals under Grant. Still, admittedly, this does not qualify as a substantial loss. Or?

Contrary to what might come across as the case, Ghana is actually stronger without Gyan. Check this out: 10 of the 16 players who have scored goals under Grant - a group whose combined tally of 25 goals makes them responsible for 73% of the total goal haul - are in the squad to face Egypt. This is substantial. This indicates that Ghana will have access to a rich base of goal sources.

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Whose absence, though, per the stats, would have been a huge loss?

Guess?

Definitely not Gyan.

Uhuh?

...

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It’s actually Jordan Ayew.

The Aston Villa man has been the most prolific marksman under Grant, contributing an immense and impressive 17% of goals. The 25-year-old has clearly found his national scoring boots in recent times: he has scored six goals under the former Chelsea manager, which is half his entire tally (12) for Ghana since he made his debut in 2010.

Following Jordan are Andre Ayew, Christian Atsu and Mubarak Wakaso respectively on four goals each. Add their tally to Jordan’s and all four of them – who are in the squad to face Egypt and are shoo-in to start – have scored 18 goals between them, which represents 53% of goals. Ghana will have access to these players and their substantial goal stats, and this counts for something.

A look further down the list of top scorers under Grant reveals that Gyan, with his three strikes, comes in fifth. Richmond Boakye Yiadom and John Boye follow with two goals each. The rest of the goals, one each, is spread among Agyemang Badu, Bernard Mensah, Albert Adomah, Harrison Afful David Accam, Jeffrey Schlupp, Frank Acheampong and Samuel Tetteh.

This break down paints the full picture, which is that Ghana has managed to provide 91% of its goals without Gyan in the last two years, and so his absence in Alexandria should not – per the numbers at least – be overblown as a huge loss.

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