Senate Republican leadership will release a draft of their healthcare bill on Thursday, and few lawmakers know what's inside.
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The one issue that could decide the fate of the Republican healthcare bill
Medicaid could be the make or break issue in the Senate Republican healthcare bill.
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But one of the bill's thorniest issues will likely come in how it deals with Medicaid, the government program that helps low-income Americans access health insurance.
Based on the Congressional Budget Office's score on May 24, the House's American Health Care Act would cut $834 billion over the next 10 years from the program.
That's mainly for two reasons: First, the cutback of the Affordable Care Act's Medicaid expansion, which extended the income limit for qualifying Medicaid recipients to 138% of the federal poverty limit. Second, the shift to per-capita caps for federal funding to Medicaid, which would give federal aid based on the number of people and adjust this for a person's age and any disabilities.
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The Senate version is expected to adhere similarly to those cuts, but based on reports outlining the discussions, some changes could make the bill more politically palatable for GOP lawmakers.
Here are the two big issues surrounding Medicaid to look out for in the Senate healthcare bill:
The answers to these questions will likely shape how a number of Republican senators approach the legislation. For one thing, senators from Medicaid expansion states would have a tougher time swallowing a faster phase out of the expansion.
On the other hand, a more generous phase-out of the expansion and higher Medicaid growth caps could alienate conservatives that want substantial savings from the bill.
From a non-vote perspective, the Congressional Budget Office's estimate that 23 million fewer people will have health insurance in 2026 than under the current system was based in large part due to losses in Medicaid coverage losses. How Senate alterations affect the coverage score, if at all, could color public reaction to the bill.
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Republicans can only afford to lose two votes for the bill to pass without Democratic support.
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