Patrick J. Lyons

By 2 p.m. ET, the storm had made landfall at Elbow Cay and was moving westward fairly slowly — 7 mph — over Great Abaco; it was expected to continue near or over Grand Bahama later Sunday or early Monday, forecasters said. Storm surges of as much as 18 to 23 feet were possible, enough to swamp many low-lying areas of the islands, and as much as 25 inches of rain could fall before the storm passes.

By late Monday or early Tuesday, forecasters said, the storm could be near the Florida coast.

Hurricane-force winds extend 45 miles outward from the center of the storm, the center said, with tropical storm-force winds as much as 140 miles outward.

The National Hurricane Center said on Sunday that there were wind gusts exceeding 220 mph — three times the wind speed to qualify as a hurricane. Officials said the storm was the strongest on record in the islands.

— Storm Is Expected to Turn Northward, Raking U.S. Coast

Forecasters expect the storm to creep nearer to the coast of Florida through Monday and then swing northward, paralleling the mainland coast. Though it may not make landfall all week if it follows that track, its strong winds and heavy rains, storm surge and punishing surf could still have the potential to do major damage in Florida, Georgia and the Carolinas.

The National Hurricane Center posted a hurricane watch on Sunday for the Florida coast from Deerfield Beach to the Brevard-Volusia county line north of Titusville, meaning that hurricane-force winds are expected there within 48 hours. A tropical storm warning extends north from there to Sebastien Inlet, and storm watches were posted for Lake Okeechobee and for the coast south of Deerfield Beach to Golden Beach.

“Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are possible,” the center said.

— Florida Is on Edge, Hoping the Storm Will Just Miss Land

Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida warned on Sunday that while forecasts now suggested that Hurricane Dorian may veer north offshore, a slight nudge could bring its powerful eye to landfall somewhere along Florida’s Atlantic coast.

“We’ve got to prepare for that eventuality,” DeSantis said, speaking from the state’s emergency operations in Tallahassee, the capital. He was surrounded by a small group of grim-faced public officials.

Even if the storm stays offshore, the state will probably still experience dangerous storm surge and some flooding. At least four counties have begun evacuating coastal communities, with several more expected to follow soon. DeSantis suspended tolls on a number of major highways to facilitate the movement of coastal residents inland.

DeSantis sought to put Dorian’s sustained winds of 185 mph in perspective: “That’s significantly stronger than Hurricane Andrew, which reached landfall at 165 mph. It’s significantly stronger than Hurricane Michael, 160 mph. South Florida has had one hurricane in our history — the Labor Day Hurricane of 1935 — that reached that level, and that was total destruction. The strength of this storm cannot be underestimated.”

— PATRICIA MAZZEI

— Trump’s Mar-a-Lago Private Club Is Under a Mandatory Evacuation Order

One of the Florida counties ordering evacuations on Sunday was Palm Beach County, which ordered the evacuation of residences in low-lying and coastal areas of the county, including the barrier island where Mar-a-Lago, President Donald Trump’s private club and favorite winter destination, is located. The order took effect at 1 p.m. ET and also includes areas with vulnerable types of residential construction, like mobile home parks.

The eastern half of the county is included in a long stretch of the Florida coast now under a hurricane watch, indicating that Hurricane Dorian’s hurricane-force winds are expected within 48 hours.

“If you choose not to evacuate to a shelter, please evacuate miles, not hundreds of miles,” the county said. “With the unpredictable nature of Hurricane Dorian, evacuating north is not recommended.”

— Why Is Damage From the Hurricane So Difficult to Predict With Precision?

Experts can see Hurricane Dorian’s compact eye and near-circular symmetry clearly in satellite images, signifying a ferocious storm. What is much harder for them to discern is whether the storm will it be a disaster for the United States.

Computer models on Sunday showed a range of possible tracks Dorian could follow, with landfall in Florida, Georgia or the Carolinas, or nowhere. And if the hurricane does make landfall, its intensity at that point — whether it will still be a Category 5 or substantially weaker — is equally uncertain.

So nearly the entire southeast coast of the United States, from South Florida through the Carolinas, is at risk — but in the end, many of those places may well see little or no impact. How should all the people along this long coastline deal with this confusing, indefinite forecast?

Adam Sobel, a professor at Columbia University and director of the Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate, explains why meteorologists must speak in probabilities, not certainties, and focus on the worst-case scenarios rather than the best cases.

It comes down to this: It is better to over-warn than to under-warn. An alarm that turns out to have been needless is just an annoyance, but an alarm that was needed but never issued can have deadly consequences.

— People Are Vacationing at Disney World Despite Storm Warnings

Families arrived in Orlando this weekend carrying Disney-themed suitcases, wearing Mickey Mouse ears and closely monitoring Hurricane Dorian’s path as they plowed ahead with long-planned vacations to Walt Disney World.

The theme park complex is mostly operating normally, though its Blizzard Beach Water Park was closed as a precaution on Sunday.

Cierra and Louis Gosselin, who live in Bermuda, booked their nine-day vacation at Disney World more than seven months ago for their wedding anniversary and were especially excited to visit Galaxy Edge, a new Star Wars-themed section of Disney World that opened on Thursday.

The couple has been keeping a close eye on the latest hurricane models and said they were hopeful Dorian would not have much effect on their visit. But just in case, they rented a car and are ready to evacuate if necessary.

“I think we’re a little less intimidated because we live in Bermuda,” said Cierra Gosselin, an accounting consultant. “We’re more accustomed to the hurricanes, and we know what to do.”

She joked that her biggest fear was that the park’s replica of the Millennium Falcon, the Star Wars spacecraft, would be swept up by the storm.

Daniel and Kristin Russell arrived in Orlando on Saturday from Grand Rapids, Michigan, with their 4-year-old daughter, who was particularly excited for the “Mickey’s Not-So-Scary Halloween Party” event.

Daniel Russell said the family had considered canceling, but decided to go ahead with the trip when forecasts began to indicate that the hurricane may not make landfall in Florida.

“We had lots of friends and family that told us it might not be good to go, but we kept watching it, and we don’t think it’s going to be a problem now,” he said.

Some visitors were getting out just in time. Inside the Orlando International Airport, the Magic of Disney store was bustling with people snagging one more souvenir before boarding a plane home. They tried on hats with Minnie Mouse’s signature red and white polka dots, and perused Disney-themed oven mitts, stuffed animals and R2-D2 mugs.

— NICHOLAS BOGEL-BURROUGHS

— North and South Carolina Declare States of Emergency

With forecasters now expecting the storm to move north up the coast before making landfall, the governors of North and South Carolina have declared states of emergency, adding to those already declared in all of Florida and in 12 counties in Georgia.

“North Carolinians should prepare, and listen to local leaders for updates on severe weather. Please take the time now to prepare for possible effects of #Dorian,” Gov. Roy Cooper wrote in a Twitter message Saturday night. Several hours earlier, Gov. Henry McMaster of South Carolina told his state’s residents not to take the storm lightly.

“Given the strength and unpredictability of the storm, we must prepare for every possible scenario,” McMaster said in a statement. “State assets are being mobilized now and Team South Carolina is working around the clock to be ready, if necessary. We encourage all South Carolinians who may be impacted by Hurricane Dorian to be vigilant and prepare now — there is no reason for delay.”

The National Hurricane Center said some tracking models suggest that the storm may make landfall near Cape Fear, North Carolina, on Thursday or Friday. Though its winds are expected to have weakened somewhat, the storm could still lash the coastline with winds of up to 80 mph, and could dump as much as 10 inches of rain on coastal areas of North Carolina.

— TIMOTHY WILLIAMS

This article originally appeared in

A 'Catastrophic' Category 5 Storm With Ferocious Winds

As Hurricane Dorian struck the Abaco Islands in the northwestern Bahamas on Sunday, the National Hurricane Center said that the maximum sustained winds around the eye of the “extremely dangerous” storm had reached 185 mph, making it a “catastrophic” storm with “devastating winds.”

Here are answers to some basic questions about the unrest and its roots.

What touched off the protests?

The spark was lit Saturday by the publication of hundreds of pages of crass, insensitive and often profane chat messages among Rosselló and 11 men in his inner circle. Besides being offensive, the messages revealed a cozy relationship between Rosselló and former staff members who now represent special interests. Outraged Puerto Ricans took to the streets and have protested every day since then.

What’s really behind all the anger?

The protests are about much more than just the unseemly chat messages. They amount to a rejection of decades of mismanagement by leaders who always seemed to benefit while ordinary Puerto Ricans suffered. Grievances have been building up over 12 years of economic recession, a debt crisis that has prompted layoffs and cutbacks in public services and the botched response to Hurricane Maria.

The chat messages and the arrests last week of six people with ties to the Rosselló government were the last straws for many Puerto Ricans, who said they could no longer tolerate mocking, profanity and corruption, real or perceived, by leaders who were supposed to be fighting on their behalf in Washington and San Juan.

What do the protesters want?

They want to be rid of both Rosselló and another target of their ire, the unelected oversight board created by Congress to manage the finances of the island’s government, which owes far more than it can pay to its creditors. Thousands of government workers have been laid off, services have been cut, tuition raised and schools closed as Puerto Rico has struggled to resolve the debt crisis; none of that has been popular.

Rosselló has tried at times to push back against “la junta,” as the board is known. But many Puerto Ricans lump the two together in their frustration and fury. The protesters have taken to chanting “Ricky, renuncia, y llévate a la junta” — Ricky, resign, and take the board with you.

Will the governor go?

Rosselló, whose term runs through 2020, said Thursday that he did not intend to resign. But private negotiations over a transition abound in San Juan, and some politicians have spoken of impeaching him. Legislative leaders have asked a panel of jurists to issue a recommendation on whether to pursue impeachment charges.

One complication is that Puerto Rico has no lieutenant governor to take his place. The island’s secretary of state is supposed to step in as acting governor when needed, but that post is currently vacant — and the power to fill it belongs to Rosselló, though his nominee would have to be approved by the island’s legislature. Leaders of the governing New Progressive Party are scrambling to find a candidate.

If there is no secretary of state, the governorship would go next to the secretary of justice, Wanda Vázquez Garced, but powerful legislative leaders from her party do not seem interested in having that happen.

This article originally appeared in <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/19/us/puerto-rico-protest-facts.html" id="36bf1e7b-2845-36d7-a239-d1401ccdeab8">The New York Times</a>.

Suddenly, San Juan, Puerto Rico, is in turmoil. Growing numbers of angry protesters have been marching in the streets and converging on La Fortaleza, the official residence of Gov. Ricardo A. Rosselló, where police officers in riot gear have fired tear gas, pepper spray and rubber bullets into the crowds.

Unrest in Puerto Rico: What's Going On?

Patterson faces a mandatory sentence of life in prison if convicted. It is very unusual for defendants to plead guilty at such an early stage of court proceedings, and his plea can still be withdrawn at any time before he is sentenced.

But Richard Jones, one of Patterson’s lawyers, told the court that Patterson “decided this is what he wants to do,” The Associated Press reported.

Investigators said Patterson, 21, had confessed to them that he went to the Closs family home in Barron, Wisconsin, on Oct. 15 intending to kidnap Jayme, a 13-year-old girl he had seen but never met. He told them he had killed Jayme’s father, James Closs, with a shotgun blast, and forced her mother, Denise Closs, to cover her daughter’s mouth with tape. Then he killed the mother, tied Jayme up, forced her into the trunk of his car and drove about 70 miles to a cabin near Gordon, Wisconsin, where he held her captive, investigators said.

She managed to escape 88 days later, on Jan. 10, and sought help from a passer-by, who took her to a nearby house and got word to authorities. Within hours, sheriff’s deputies had arrested Patterson. He was charged with two counts of first-degree intentional homicide, one of kidnapping and one of armed burglary, and was ordered held on $5 million bail.

Patterson pleaded guilty Wednesday to the two homicide counts and kidnapping; the burglary charge was dropped. Jones said Patterson rejected the other options his lawyers offered him, including trying to persuade the court to set aside his confession, the AP said.

Jayme’s disappearance and the killing of her parents baffled authorities for months. The case attracted national media attention, as scores of detectives fanned out across Wisconsin looking for the girl while her photo was circulated online and on missing-person posters. The case shook the rural county where she lived, and residents of tiny Gordon were shocked to learn that she had been held captive there unnoticed.

Investigators said in a criminal complaint that Patterson, who was apparently not a suspect until the day he was arrested, told them he had carefully prepared for the abduction, and had killed Jayme’s parents with a shotgun stolen from his father so there would be no witnesses to help track him down. They said he spoke of slowing down on the highway to let police cars race by on their way to the Closs house as he drove away with Jayme in his trunk.

Jayme told detectives that Patterson kept her imprisoned in the cabin in Gordon, and confined her under a twin bed in his room when he left the cabin or when anyone else was there — sometimes for 12 hours at a stretch without a break to eat, drink or relieve herself.

Former high school classmates and teachers described Patterson as a quiet, bookish boy who struggled to find his way after graduation. He enlisted in the Marines but was sent home from boot camp after five weeks. Neighbors said he bounced from job to job and spent much of his time alone.

Patterson said in a Feb. 28 letter, responding to written questions from a Minneapolis television reporter, that he intended to plead guilty at the arraignment hearing Wednesday because he did not want Jayme’s family to “worry about a trial.” He wrote that he could not explain his motives clearly and that “I can’t believe I did this.” He ended the letter with an apology to Jayme, adding, “I know it doesn’t mean much.”

This article originally appeared in <a id="a6feb68b-6c44-46cc-887f-d6abadaac917" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/27/us/jake-patterson-jayme-closs-guilty.html">The New York Times</a>.

Jake Patterson pleads guilty in Jayme Closs abduction

Jake Patterson, the man accused of abducting Jayme Closs, a Wisconsin middle-school student, after killing her parents, pleaded guilty at an arraignment hearing Wednesday.

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Patrick J. Lyons

Articles written by the author

A 'Catastrophic' Category 5 Storm With Ferocious Winds

Unrest in Puerto Rico: What's Going On?

Jake Patterson pleads guilty in Jayme Closs abduction