Opta supercomputer predicts Arsenal victory as Gunners face Man City in Community Shield

• Opta gives Arsenal a 44.8% chance of beating Manchester City in the 2026 Community Shield.

• Manchester City have a 29.7% chance of winning in normal time, while a draw is rated at 25.5%.

• Arsenal have won all three of their previous Community Shield meetings with Manchester City.

Arsenal have been given the edge over Manchester City ahead of the 2026 FA Community Shield, with Opta’s supercomputer predicting a 44.8% chance of the Premier League champions winning in normal time.

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Opta ran 10,000 pre-match simulations of Sunday’s clash and handed Manchester City a 29.7% chance of victory across 90 minutes, while a draw was predicted in 25.5% of the simulations. 

The match, scheduled for Sunday, August 16, will see Arsenal, who won the 2025-26 Premier League title, face Manchester City, the 2026 FA Cup winners. It will be played at the Principality Stadium in Cardiff rather than Wembley.

Arsenal have a perfect Community Shield record against City, winning all three previous meetings. They won 4-0 in 1934, 3-0 in 2014 and then edged City 4-1 on penalties after a 1-1 draw in 2023.

The Gunners also come into the contest with a strong overall record in the competition. They have won the Community Shield 17 times, second only to Manchester United’s 21, and have won their last five appearances in the fixture.

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City, however, have reasons for confidence after getting the better of Arsenal last season. They beat the Gunners 2-0 in the EFL Cup final before securing a 2-1 Premier League victory in March. 

The fixture also marks a new chapter for Manchester City following Pep Guardiola’s departure after a decade in charge. Former Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca will take charge of City for the first time in a competitive match, while Mikel Arteta remains in the Arsenal dugout.

Arsenal have also strengthened their squad with the arrivals of Bruno Guimarães and Christos Tzolis, while Piero Hincapié’s move from Bayer Leverkusen has been made permanent.

Predicted Man City lineup: Donnarumma, Nunes, Dias, Gvardiol, Ait-Nouri, Kovacic, Nico Gonzalez, Semenyo, Foden, Doku, Marmoush.

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Predicted Arsenal Lineup: Kepa Arrizabalaga, Ben White, Cristhian Mosquera, Gabrie, Riccardo Calafiori, Martin Ødegaard, Bruno Guimarães, Myles Lewis-Skell, Max Dowman, Viktor Gyökeres, Christos Tzolis

The Community Shield will provide the first piece of silverware available in the new English season, although Opta notes that winning the trophy has not always been a reliable indicator of eventual Premier League success. Only eight of the 34 Community Shield winners since the start of the Premier League era have gone on to win the league in the same season.