Ghana's economy is on the cusp of a remarkable milestone as it prepares to achieve its first current account surplus in two decades.
A recent report by BMI, a Fitch Solutions company, forecasts a shift from a 2.1% GDP deficit in 2022 to a 1.3% GDP surplus in 2023.
This surprising turnaround is driven by a blend of factors, with the trade surplus gaining prominence in the latter half of 2023.
Imports are expected to decline more sharply than exports, creating a trade surplus bolstered by subdued domestic demand and global commodity price drops.
Key economic elements, such as elevated inflation rates and constrained monetary conditions, will likely sustain this trend.
Import growth remains lethargic due to domestic factors, while a milder contraction is anticipated for export growth.
Factors like integrating artisanal miners into official production figures and reopening the Bibiani gold mine are set to boost steady gold production growth.
Moreover, Ghana's cocoa exports are projected to benefit from adverse weather conditions in neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest producer.
This combination contributes to a prolonged trade surplus, showcasing Ghana's economic resilience and adaptability.
While this surplus might be temporary, the report suggests a potential shift back to a deficit in 2024.
This expected change is largely attributed to recovering imports, driven by increased household spending, growing business activity, and rising energy prices. On the flip side, export growth is predicted to remain sluggish due to shifting global dynamics.
However, the report cautions that Ghana's external position still faces risks. Any slowdown in negotiations with external creditors could dent investor confidence, leading to capital flight and economic challenges.
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