Election 2020: Economist Intelligence Unit predicts a win for NPP again despite COVID-19 threat

The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has predicted again that the governing New Patriotic Party (NPP) will win this year’s general elections to be held in December.

President Akufo-Addo and Vice President, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia

The EIU explained that NPP will retain power because it is regarded as the party that can manage the economy better than the major opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC).

This is not the first time the EIU has predicted that the NPP will win the 2020 elections. The same prediction was made in December 2019.

But the latest report said that even though COVID-19 has brought on some challenges, it is near impossible for the NDC to win the 2020 elections.

The EIU indicated that the election could be ‘closely contested’ if the NDC presents a coherent opposition and holds the NPP accountable for unfulfilled promises.

“In the upcoming presidential poll, the incumbent, Nana Akufo-Addo, will face a challenge from John Mahama who was elected leader of the NDC in February 2019. The campaign for the 2016 election was dominated by public concerns over a faltering economy, which many Ghanaians still associate with Mr. Mahama. Ahead of this election, the NPP has focused on infrastructure development (such as improving internet and electricity access, as well as roads, in rural areas) and outlined ambitious growth plans for cash-crop yields, which would bolster rural incomes.”

“Despite the uncertainties posed by the pandemic, the Economist Intelligence Unit believes that it will be difficult for the NDC under Mr. Mahama to portray itself as the better custodian of Ghana’s economy. We, therefore, expect Mr. Akufo-Addo and the NPP to secure re-election. However, if the NDC can present a coherent challenge and hold the NPP to account on its unfulfilled campaign promises—such as faster progress on infrastructure development—the elections could be closely contested,” the EIU added.

In the 2016 elections, Nana Akufo-Addo polled 5,716,026 million votes, representing 53.85%, while John Mahama polled 4,713,277 million votes representing 44.40%, the worse so far for an incumbent President.

There’ll be a change of government – NDC

The last time EIU tipped the NPP to win the 2020 election, the NDC was unfazed about it.

A Deputy General Secretary of the party, Peter Otokunor at the time said he was certain there would be a change in government.

“There will be an obvious change in government. The NDC will be winning the December 7 polls and President Mahama will become the President again. While we look at 2020 with hope, we are not oblivious of the fact that 2019 was that of misery and hardship. People had really gone through tough times.”

However, it is uncertain if the December 2020 polls would be held. This is because many electoral activities leading to the polls have been suspended till further notice due to the pandemic.


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