See who Nigeria’s next president could be based on predictive polls

Stears Poll for 2023 Presidential elections
  • Nigeria’s election is 2 days away and many predictive polls since the final quarter of 2022 have been springing up. 
  • Predictive polls are typically a way to understand what direction an election is going, however, it does not tell the whole story. 
  • Most predictive polls have Peter Obi emerging as president of Nigeria.

Predictive polls have become increasingly important in the world of elections. They are surveys that attempt to forecast the outcomes of a given election.

For political campaigns, predictive polls are invaluable. The information from these polls helps campaigns target their advertising and outreach efforts to the most likely voters. The polls also help campaigns identify which issues resonate with the public and which policies are most popular. This information is vital for strategic decisions about campaign messaging and target audiences.

In addition to helping campaigns, predictive polls also play an essential role in informing the public about the election. By providing a snapshot of public opinion, predictive polls help voters to make informed decisions. Voters can use the results from the polls to compare candidates and to make up their minds about who they want to support.

Finally, predictive polls can help to shape the election itself. The results of the polls can influence the strategy of a campaign or the tone of the conversation. Candidates and parties may adjust their messaging or tactics in light of the polls’ findings. Predictive polls are a valuable tool for campaigns, voters, and the media. They provide essential insight into public opinion and can shape the outcome of an election in a genuine way.


For Nigeria’s upcoming presidential election, these polls have generated a lot of traction, and supporters of each major candidate are hinging on the fact that some predictive polls are reassuring them of thier choice. With some of these polls, the voters are already reassured that they are not alone, but rather have a legion of supporters behind them.

For the 2023 Presidential election in Nigeria, 3 candidates of the 18 who are running have the vote of confidence from the general public. They are, Mr. Peter Obi, Bola Ahmed Tinubu, and Atiku Abubakar. These three men are the front runners and each has been projected to win, whether by their supporters, by the media, by experts, or by predictive polls.

With that said, here are some of the predictive polls on Nigeria’s presidential election. The polls mentioned below are via credible data sources, and it is important to note that as valid as predictive polls are, they don’t tell the whole story. There are respondents that cannot be reached due to a lack of access, and these people may be registered voters.

Also, fan extensive breakdowns and sub-insights are available on the platforms mentioned below.

Stears Insight: In the Stears poll, for a high turnout scenario Peter Obi has 41% votes, Atiku Abubakar has 20% and Bola Tinubu has 31%. However, in a low-turnout scenario, Atiku Abubakar has 22%, Bola Tinubu has 39% and Peter Obi has 32%.


ANAP Foundation: In this organization’s survey, Peter Obi scored 21%, Bola Tinubu had 13%, and Atiku Abubakar had 10%. 53% of the 2000 respondents were undecided.

Kwakol Research: In Kwakol’s research 20 survey locations spanning villages, towns, and cities across selected states in Nigeria were selected, and they garnered a total of 1008 respondents. Of these respondents, 52.80% choose Peter Obi, 15.60% choose Bola Tinubu, and 18.90% choose Atiku Abubakar.

Nextier: According to this consultancy firm, Peter Obi is set to secure 37%, Bola Tinubu is set to secure 24%, and Atiku Abubakar is set to secure 27%.

Political Africa Initiative (POLAF): The survey by this not-for-profit firm which was conducted via telephone interview with 3,123,660 randomly sampled respondents registered, projected that Atiku Abubakar would emerge victorious at 38%, while Bola Tinubu would come out with 29% and Peter Obi at 24%.



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