A $265 billion investment chief says one of the most valuable economic indicators is signaling a recession in about 18 months

Scott Minerd of Guggenheim Partners says the shape of the yield curve is one of the most valuable predictors of forward economic activity. He says the shape of the yield curve today indicates a recession in about one to one and a half years. He says if the Fed is forced to reduce rates because of an exogenous event, it would delay the recession but also make it more severe.Minerd says he is worried about excessive corporate leverage. When a downturn hits Minerd expects a trillion dollars or m...