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A trusty recession signal is telling the Fed 'we're about where we need to be' on interest rates

Look no further than the $15 trillion US government bond market for evidence investors are not convinced the Federal Reserve can keep raising interest rates at the recent clip without derailing the economy, which remains fragile despite strong headline numbers.
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  • The flat yield curve suggests investors are not as convinced as Federal Reserve officials about their ability to continue raising interest rates without harming the economy.
  • Steve Blitz of TS Lombard says what really matters for bank lending is the gap between the federal funds rate and the two-year note, which has been widening.
  • St. Louis Fed's Bullard: "What we could do is take signals from financial markets that are telling us that we're about where we need to be right now."
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