The Institute for Energy Security (IES) has predicted that fuel prices at the pumps will fall in the first window of November 2018 by 4%.

In a press statement issued by the Research and Policy Analyst of IES, Mikdad Mohammed said “the Institute has taken cognisance of the 5.94% fall in Brent crude average prices and also fall in finished products prices on the international market, with the Cedi recording respectable gains against the dollar within the window. On this basis, the Institute for Energy Security (IES) foresees fuel prices on the local market falling within the band of 2% and 4%.”

According to the release, the substantial fall in the price of LPG on the international fuel market is expected to lead the crusade on the local market.

It added that it expects some Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) to be influenced by the Price Deregulation policy to effect reductions beyond the projected margin.

Assessing the last pricing window in September, IES said: “while U.S. sanctions on Iran are expected to tighten supplies, Saudi Arabia has signalled its willingness to increase supply further if needed, as the full tightening of sanctions against Iran by the United States take full shape in November amidst fears of escalating trading rows”.

As a result, within the window, average Brent crude price has fallen from $83.96 per barrel to $78.97 per barrel.

On prices of finished products based on Standard and Poor’s Platts Benchmark, Gasoline and Gasoil prices have also reduced by 5.85% and 2.57% respectively. Gasoil which was previously selling for $733.14 per metric ton is now trading at $714.30 per metric ton. Gasoline is also trading at a reduced price of $694.75 per metric ton, up from its previous price of $737.93 per metric ton.

Within the same September window, two state oil companies, the Tema Oil Refinery (TOR) and the Bulk Oil Storage and Transportation Company (BOST) procured 947,977 barrels of crude (equivalent to 128,798 metric tons) and 39,000 metric tons of Gasoil respectively.

Overall, the country received approximately 11,000 metric tons of LPG, 10,500 metric tons of Gasoline; 56,000 metric tons of Gasoil, and 16,000 metric tons of HFO.

“The cedi is beginning to make some gains against the US Dollar within the window as IES economic Desk computed figures show the cedi appreciated by 2.64%. The cedi which sold at GHS4.91 two weeks ago at the last window is currently selling at GHS4.7,” IES noted.