World's 2 largest cocoa-producing countries expected to record 10% and 16% drop in output next year

• COCOBOD has projected a 16% decline in Ghana's cocoa production for the 2026/27 season, citing adverse weather, swollen shoot disease, ageing farms and the impact of illegal mining.

• Neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire, the world's largest cocoa producer, is also expecting a smaller harvest, raising concerns over tighter global cocoa supplies and potential pressure on chocolate prices.

• COCOBOD says it is responding with farm rehabilitation, expanded pest-control programmes and the reintroduction of free fertiliser distribution to help minimise losses and boost future production.

Ghana's cocoa production is expected to decline by at least 16% during the 2026/27 crop season. The Ghana Cocoa Board (COCOBOD) attributes the projected fall to adverse weather conditions, crop disease, ageing farms and the continued impact of illegal mining (galamsey).

The forecast, shared by COCOBOD in response to questions from Reuters, adds official backing to concerns previously raised by cocoa farmers in the country's main producing regions, who have reported significantly lower pod counts ahead of the new season.

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According to COCOBOD, the decline is being driven by a combination of likely El Niño weather conditions, excessive rainfall recorded in May and June 2026, and the cocoa tree's natural production cycle, in which years of high yields are often followed by lower-yielding seasons.

El Niño is a natural climate pattern marked by unusually warm ocean surface temperatures, weakened trade winds, and altered global weather.

The regulator said these factors have resulted in a low cherelle load, that is the number of young cocoa pods that survive to maturity, particularly in the Western and Western North regions, where both regions together, produce more than half of Ghana's cocoa.

COCOBOD added that the outlook in these key cocoa-growing areas has been worsened by cocoa swollen shoot disease, ageing plantations and the growing impact of illegal mining, locally known as galamsey, which continues to destroy cocoa farms and reduce land available for cultivation.

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The projected decline comes ahead of the 2026/27 cocoa season, which begins in September, and follows reports from farmers who say this year's pod formation has been weaker than expected.

Despite the outlook, COCOBOD says it has stepped up efforts to minimise production losses.

The regulator said it has intensified the rehabilitation of farms affected by swollen shoot disease in the Western North Region, expanded nationwide insecticide and fungicide spraying programmes and reintroduced free fertiliser distribution for cocoa farmers ahead of the new crop season.

The interventions form part of broader efforts to revive Ghana's cocoa sector, which has faced multiple challenges in recent years, including climate change, diseases, smuggling, financing constraints and illegal mining.

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Ghana is the world's second-largest cocoa producer, behind neighbouring Côte d'Ivoire, and together the two countries account for more than half of global cocoa production. Any significant decline in output from either country has implications for global cocoa supplies and chocolate prices.

The latest forecast also comes as Côte d'Ivoire is expected to record a more than 10% decline in cocoa production during the next season due to similar weather-related challenges.