Who Leads the NPP? 4 Major Polls Show Conflicting Predictions Ahead of the Polls

With just days remaining until the New Patriotic Party (NPP) holds its presidential primary on 31 January 2026, four major polls present markedly different outcomes, leaving the race highly unpredictable.

Some surveys show businessman Kennedy Agyapong in the lead, while others project Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the frontrunner.

These variations have generated widespread discussion among party members, political observers, and the candidates themselves. Here is a summary of the key findings and sample sizes for each poll.

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The Sanity Africa survey, conducted between December 2025 and early January 2026, indicates Kennedy Agyapong leading with 52% delegate support, compared to Dr. Bawumia’s 40%.

The poll covered a weighted sample of 15,000 delegates across all 276 constituencies nationwide. Other candidates were far behind: Dr. Bryan Acheampong at 7%, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum at 0.7%, and Ing. Kwabena Agyepong at 0.3%.

This poll highlights Agyapong’s apparent strength among the party base, particularly among younger delegates and female members, who show strong support for his candidacy.

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Dr. Evans Duah’s research, carried out from August 2025 to early January 2026, shows a similar trend. Kennedy Agyapong registers 52.59%, while Dr. Bawumia trails at 36.24%.

The study was based on 31,556 verified interviews from a total universe of 40,988 delegates across all constituencies. Dr. Bryan Acheampong recorded 7.17%, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum 0.95%, and Ing. Kwabena Agyepong 0.05%.

The consistency between this survey and the Sanity Africa poll suggests a substantial lead for Agyapong among the sampled delegates, particularly at the grassroots level.

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Released on 23 January 2026, Global InfoAnalytics presents a sharply contrasting picture. Their survey indicates Dr. Bawumia in the lead with 57%, while Kennedy Agyapong is at 28%. Dr. Bryan Acheampong holds 13%, Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum 2%, and Kwabena Agyepong 0%.

This poll was conducted among over 10,000 delegates nationwide across all 276 constituencies. The sizeable gap in this survey suggests a strong advantage for Dr. Bawumia, highlighting how different polling exercises can produce divergent predictions.

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The Centre for Public Opinion and Awareness (CenPOA) conducted its survey between 16 December 2025 and 9 January 2026. The results show Dr. Bawumia at 42% and Kennedy Agyapong at 34%, with 17% of delegates undecided.

The poll included 2,792 potential delegates from 55 constituencies across all 16 regions. This survey indicates a closer contest, reflecting a competitive race where a significant portion of delegates could still influence the final outcome.

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The four surveys paint a divided picture of the NPP presidential primary:

• Sanity Africa: Agyapong 52%, Bawumia 40% (15,000 delegates)

• Dr. Evans Duah: Agyapong 52.59%, Bawumia 36.24% (31,556 delegates)

• Global InfoAnalytics: Bawumia 57%, Agyapong 28% (10,000 delegates)

• CenPOA: Bawumia 42%, Agyapong 34%, 17% undecided (2,792 delegates)

The results demonstrate that the race is highly fluid. Delegate-focused surveys suggest Kennedy Agyapong may have built a strong base of support, while other polls indicate Dr. Bawumia maintains an edge, particularly if undecided delegates consolidate behind him.

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The final outcome will depend on the decisions of delegates in the coming days and the effectiveness of each candidate’s mobilisation efforts. The sizeable portion of undecided delegates, as shown in the CenPOA poll, could play a decisive role in determining the winner.

On 31 January 2026, NPP delegates will cast their ballots, bringing clarity to a race that has been characterised by dramatic contrasts and conflicting poll predictions. Until then, party members, analysts, and the candidates themselves will continue to closely monitor every development and survey result.