Supercomputer gives Black Stars of Ghana just 13.8% chance of beating Colombia at World Cup

The Black Stars of Ghana face one of their toughest tests at the 2026 FIFA World Cup when they take on Colombia in a high-stakes Round of 32 encounter on Friday night in Kansas City.

With a place in the last 16 on the line, Ghana will need to produce a major upset against the South American side to keep their World Cup dream alive. However, pre-match predictions suggest the Black Stars face an uphill battle.

According to Opta's supercomputer, Ghana have been given only a 13.8% chance of defeating Colombia, while the South Americans are overwhelming favourites to progress. Colombia emerged victorious in 64.8% of 25,000 match simulations, highlighting the scale of the challenge facing Carlos Queiroz's men.

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The remaining 21.4% of simulations ended in a draw after 90 minutes, meaning extra time and potentially penalties could be required to separate the two sides.

The Black Stars reached the knockout stages after navigating a difficult Group L campaign that featured Panama, England and Croatia.

Ghana opened their tournament with a narrow 1-0 victory over Panama before earning a valuable goalless draw against England. A hard-fought 2-1 defeat to Croatia in their final group match was still enough to secure a place in the Round of 32.

Caleb Yirenkyi and Derrick Luckassen have been Ghana's goalscorers so far, while the team has impressed defensively, conceding just two goals in three matches.

Head coach Carlos Queiroz is expected to maintain the core of the side that produced disciplined performances throughout the group stage, particularly in the draw against England.

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Colombia enters the contest with a formidable record against African teams at the FIFA World Cup.

The South Americans have won each of their last four World Cup matches against African opposition, including a 1-0 victory over DR Congo during the group stage of the 2026 tournament. Notably, all four victories have come by a one-goal margin.

Their only knockout-stage meeting with an African nation came in the 1990 World Cup, when they suffered a 2-1 extra-time defeat to Cameroon, inspired by legendary striker Roger Milla.

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History is also against the Black Stars when it comes to facing South American nations at the World Cup.

Ghana have yet to record a victory against South American opposition at the tournament. They suffered a 3-0 defeat to Brazil in 2006 and lost 2-0 to Uruguay in the group stage of the 2022 World Cup.

Their most famous encounter remains the dramatic 2010 quarter-final against Uruguay, where Luis Suárez's controversial handball denied Ghana a historic semi-final appearance before the Black Stars eventually lost in a penalty shootout.