Ayawaso East By-Election: Poll projects decisive victory for NDC’s Baba Jamal

A new poll by Global InfoAnalytics has projected victory for the National Democratic Congress (NDC) candidate, Baba Jamal, in the upcoming Ayawaso East by-election scheduled for Tuesday, 3 March 2026.

The survey, conducted between 28 February and 1 March, sampled 972 voters across the constituency. The findings place Baba Jamal significantly ahead of his main contender, Baba Ali of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), just days before polls open.

According to the poll, Baba Jamal is projected to secure 75% of the vote, while Baba Ali trails with 21%, giving the NDC candidate a commanding lead heading into election day. Umaru Sanda Muhammed, an independent candidate who recently broke away from the NDC, is projected to obtain 3% of the vote. The remaining candidates, Ibrahim Iddrisu and David, are each expected to secure less than 1%, based on the survey results.

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The by-election was necessitated by the death of the sitting Member of Parliament, Mahama Naser Toure, in January while receiving treatment at the Korle Bu Teaching Hospital.

Baba Jamal emerged as the NDC’s parliamentary candidate after winning the party’s internal primaries. He secured 431 votes, defeating Hajia Amina Adam, who polled 399 votes, in a closely contested election. The primary attracted scrutiny following allegations that some aspirants distributed items, including television sets and foodstuffs, to delegates during voting.

Subsequently, the NDC established a three-member committee to investigate claims of inducement. After reviewing the matter, the party confirmed that Mohammed Baba Jamal would remain its candidate for the Ayawaso East by-election, clearing the way for his participation in the race.

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With the latest poll projecting a strong lead for the NDC, attention now turns to voter turnout and whether the survey results will reflect the final outcome at the ballot box.