Ghana's heat risk is rising faster than electricity access: What a new climate report means for households

Ghana is expected to experience significantly hotter conditions in the coming decades, but the country's electricity supply may not expand quickly enough to help households cope with rising temperatures.

A new report from the Climate Impact Lab warns that this combination could place thousands of lives at risk by the middle of the century.

According to the report, Ghana is among the top 25 countries identified as being caught in what researchers describe as a "Mortality-Cooling Trap"—a situation where climate change drives up temperatures faster than access to affordable and reliable electricity grows.

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Without sufficient electricity to power cooling technologies such as fans and air conditioners, communities become increasingly vulnerable to heat-related illness and death.

Researchers estimate that Ghana could record around 19 additional heat-related deaths for every 100,000 people by 2050. That projection translates to more than 4,000 additional deaths annually, with roughly one in every three Ghanaians living in areas considered to be at particularly high risk.

The findings form part of the Climate Impact Lab's latest Adaptation Roadmap report, which examines how climate change, electricity access and public health are likely to interact in the coming decades. The projections are based on modelling and represent potential future outcomes rather than guaranteed events.

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The report uses the term "Mortality-Cooling Trap" to describe countries where rising temperatures are not matched by growth in electricity access.

As extreme heat becomes more common, access to cooling can mean the difference between life and death, especially for vulnerable populations. However, in many low-income countries, electricity infrastructure is not expanding rapidly enough to support widespread use of cooling appliances.

This leaves millions of people exposed to dangerous temperatures, particularly during prolonged heatwaves.

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While Ghana faces significant risks, the report suggests the outlook varies across West Africa.

Burkina Faso is projected to experience about 60 additional heat-related deaths per 100,000 people, while Togo could see approximately 32 additional deaths per 100,000. Both countries are expected to record only minimal increases in electricity availability.

Nigeria and Côte d'Ivoire, by contrast, are not included among the countries classified as being trapped. Nigeria is projected to experience a stronger increase in electricity consumption, improving its ability to use cooling technologies as temperatures rise.

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The Climate Impact Lab estimates that climate-driven increases in temperature could contribute to around 430,000 additional deaths worldwide each year by 2050.

The report argues that access to electricity will play a critical role in reducing those losses. Countries with reliable and affordable electricity are expected to be better positioned to protect people through cooling technologies, while poorer nations risk falling further behind.

Michael Greenstone, co-founder of the Climate Impact Lab and Milton Friedman Distinguished Service Professor in Economics at the University of Chicago, said the findings reveal a stark global inequality.

He added:

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The report highlights electricity as one of the most important tools for adapting to rising temperatures.

Reliable power allows households to use fans and air conditioners, helps hospitals care for patients during heat emergencies, keeps medicines refrigerated and supports businesses and public services during periods of extreme heat.

Researchers found that middle-income countries are expected to increase electricity use for climate adaptation far more rapidly than low-income countries.

Electricity consumption linked to adaptation is projected to increase by 0.21 gigajoules (GJ) per person in middle-income countries, compared with only 0.03 GJ per person in low-income countries.

To put that into perspective, researchers say the expected increase in electricity use in low-income countries would provide only enough additional power to run a single LED light bulb for roughly four months over an entire year—far below what would be needed for widespread household cooling.

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The report identifies Africa, particularly the Sahel region, as one of the areas where the mismatch between rising temperatures and electricity access is most severe.

Researchers estimate that approximately 676 million people live in regions facing this dual challenge. By 2050, around 377,000 people each year could die from heat-related causes in these areas.

Among African countries, Niger is projected to experience the largest increase in heat-related mortality, followed by Burkina Faso, Djibouti, Chad and Mauritania.

Although Chad is expected to record a large percentage increase in electricity use, researchers note that this is largely because current electricity access is extremely low, meaning many households could still remain without reliable power.

Although the report does not identify individual regions within Ghana, existing climate patterns suggest that the country's northern regions; including the Upper East, Upper West, North East, Northern and Savannah regions already experience some of Ghana's highest temperatures and could continue to face significant heat exposure.

Large cities such as Accra, Kumasi and Tamale may also experience greater heat stress because buildings, roads and concrete surfaces absorb and retain heat, creating what scientists call the urban heat island effect.

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While long-term solutions depend on investments in electricity infrastructure and climate adaptation, public health experts recommend several practical steps to reduce heat-related health risks:

• Drink water regularly, even if you do not feel thirsty.

• Wear lightweight, loose-fitting clothing.

• Reduce outdoor activity during the hottest hours of the day where possible.

• Stay in shaded or well-ventilated areas and use fans or air conditioning if available.

• Close curtains or blinds during peak sunshine to reduce indoor heat.

• Check regularly on elderly relatives, children and people with chronic medical conditions.

• Learn the warning signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke, and seek immediate medical care if someone becomes confused, loses consciousness or develops a very high body temperature.

The report says reducing greenhouse gas emissions remains essential, but warns that adaptation measures must also accelerate.

Alongside expanding reliable electricity access, researchers recommend stronger heat early-warning systems, improved healthcare services, targeted social protection programmes and reforms that make electricity more affordable and dependable.

Ashwin Rode, a fellow at the Climate Impact Lab and Director of Scientific Research at the Energy Policy Institute at the University of Chicago (EPIC), said identifying the most vulnerable communities is the first step towards preventing avoidable deaths.

He added:

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The Climate Impact Lab says it is developing a global adaptation guide to help governments identify the most effective strategies for protecting communities from the growing impacts of climate change.

Climate scientists project that rising global temperatures caused by climate change will increase average temperatures and make extreme heat events more frequent across Ghana over the coming decades.

It refers to countries where temperatures are rising rapidly but electricity access is not expanding fast enough to allow widespread use of cooling technologies such as fans and air conditioners.

No. The figures are projections based on climate, population and electricity models. They represent possible future outcomes if current trends continue and adaptation measures do not improve sufficiently.

Reliable electricity allows households, hospitals and workplaces to use cooling technologies that reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths during periods of extreme temperatures.