Kennedy Agyapong leads NPP presidential race with 52% support – Sanity Africa poll

A new survey by Pan-African governance think tank Sanity Africa projects a decisive victory for businessman and politician Kennedy Ohene Agyapong in the New Patriotic Party’s (NPP) upcoming presidential primaries, with more than half of party delegates indicating support for his candidacy.

According to the January 2026 preliminary survey of NPP delegates’ voting intentions, Kennedy Agyapong leads the race with 52%, ahead of former Vice President Dr Mahamudu Bawumia, who polled 40%. The remaining contenders trail significantly, with Dr Bryan Acheampong securing 7%, Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum polling 0.7%, and Ing Kwabena Agyei Agyepong recording 0.3%.

The survey was conducted between December 2025 and January 2026 and targeted delegates listed in the NPP’s expanded voter album, an approach Sanity Africa says offers a more accurate reflection of delegate sentiment ahead of the primaries.

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The poll reveals a clear gender-based split in voting preferences. While Dr Bawumia performs strongly among male delegates, polling 48.9% compared to Kennedy Agyapong’s 42.4%, the trend is reversed among female delegates. Among women, Kennedy Agyapong commands a decisive lead with 57.8%, against 37.1% for Dr Bawumia. Across both gender categories, Dr Bryan Acheampong ranks third, with the other candidates trailing far behind.

Religion also emerged as a key factor shaping voting intentions. Among Christian respondents, 61.6% indicated that religion was a very important consideration in their leadership choice, with a majority saying they would vote for a candidate who shares their faith, specifically Kennedy Agyapong.

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Among Muslim respondents, support tilted in favour of Dr Bawumia, with 52.8% indicating they would vote for him, compared to 43.1% for Kennedy Agyapong. Delegates identifying as non-believers, atheists or traditionalists showed stronger support for Kennedy Agyapong.

Age-based analysis shows that Kennedy Agyapong’s strongest backing comes from delegates under 40, where he polled 63%, compared to 33.5% for Dr Bawumia. Dr Bawumia, however, performed better among delegates aged 40 to 55 and those above 55, leading Kennedy Agyapong by three percentage points and nearly ten percentage points respectively.

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Employment status was also found to significantly influence voting behaviour. Dr Bawumia leads among full-time employed delegates, securing 53.8% support compared to 41.9% for Kennedy Agyapong. Kennedy Agyapong, however, dominates among the self-employed, including traders, market women, artisans and business owners, polling 55.5%. He also leads among students and the unemployed, with 58.9% and 52.8% support respectively.

Based on its findings, Sanity Africa projects that Kennedy Agyapong is on course to win the NPP presidential primaries unless there is a major shift in delegate preferences. The organisation’s final projection places the candidates as Kennedy Ohene Agyapong with 52%, Dr Mahamudu Bawumia with 40%, Dr Bryan Acheampong with 7%, Dr Yaw Osei Adutwum with 0.7%, and Ing Kwabena Agyei Agyepong with 0.3%.

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The poll is expected to intensify internal debate within the NPP as the party prepares for a crucial leadership contest ahead of the 2028 general elections.