Supercomputer tips Barcelona to win 2026-27 LaLiga ahead of Real Madrid with 45.6% chance

Barcelona have been backed to retain the LaLiga title in the 2026/27 season, with an Opta supercomputer giving the reigning champions a 45.6% chance of finishing top.

The new Spanish top-flight campaign gets underway this weekend, with Barcelona entering the season as defending champions after comfortably beating Real Madrid to the title last term.

Opta reached its prediction after simulating the 2026/27 LaLiga season 10,000 times, with Barcelona emerging as the most likely champions in almost half of the simulations.

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Real Madrid, meanwhile, were given a 31.0% chance of winning the title as they prepare for a new era under returning manager Jose Mourinho.

Barcelona won the 2025/26 LaLiga title in convincing fashion, finishing eight points ahead of Real Madrid.

The Catalan giants sealed the championship with three matches remaining after defeating Madrid 2-0 at Camp Nou on May 10.

A successful title defence would give Barcelona their 30th LaLiga championship, although they would still remain behind Real Madrid's record 36 league titles.

According to Opta's projections, Barcelona have a 45.6% probability of winning the league again, making them clear favourites heading into the new campaign.

Their chances could become even stronger if they complete the reported signing of Spain and Manchester City midfielder Rodri.

READ ALSO: Barcelona complete signing of Ballon d’Or winner Rodri from Manchester City

The Ballon d'Or winner has been heavily linked with a move to Barcelona and could add further quality and experience to Hansi Flick's midfield.

Real Madrid are Barcelona's closest challengers, according to the supercomputer, with a 31.0% chance of lifting the LaLiga trophy.

Madrid have made a major change in the dugout after appointing Jose Mourinho for a second spell as head coach.

The Portuguese manager returns to the Santiago Bernabeu more than a decade after his first spell, during which he won LaLiga, the Copa del Rey and the Spanish Super Cup.

Mourinho's appointment represents a return to a more experienced and pragmatic managerial approach after Real Madrid previously turned to Xabi Alonso.

The club will hope Mourinho's authority and experience can help restore stability after a disappointing 2025/26 campaign.

READ MORE: Real Madrid officially unveil Jose Mourinho in low-key closed-door ceremony

While the supercomputer still ranks Real Madrid behind Barcelona, a 31% title probability suggests the defending champions could face a serious challenge from their biggest rivals.

No other team was given a greater than 10% chance of winning the league.

Barcelona and Real Madrid are also overwhelming favourites to secure Champions League qualification.

Both clubs finished in the top four in more than 81% of Opta's simulations, highlighting the gap between Spain's two biggest clubs and most of their domestic rivals.

Atletico Madrid are the next most likely team to finish in the Champions League places, with a 48.6% probability of securing a top-four finish.

Atletico's consistency makes them a strong candidate once again, having not finished outside the top four since the 2011/12 season.

Villarreal follow with a 29.5% chance, while Real Betis have a 23.0% probability of securing a top-four finish.

Valencia are next at 17.7%, followed by Rayo Vallecano and Celta Vigo, both on 16.7%.

Athletic Club has an 11.7% chance, while Real Sociedad is given a 10.9% probability.

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However, several factors could make the Champions League race difficult to predict, particularly for Villarreal and Rayo Vallecano.

The fight to avoid relegation is expected to be another closely contested battle.

Recent LaLiga seasons have produced dramatic relegation fights, and Opta's latest projections suggest several clubs could be involved at the bottom of the table.

Deportivo La Coruña is the supercomputer's most likely team to be relegated, with a 29.2% probability.

The newly promoted side returns to LaLiga for the first time since the 2017/18 season after spending several years outside Spain's top two divisions.

Elche are next at 28.4%, while Sevilla have a 27.7% relegation probability.

Sevilla's position is particularly concerning given their financial difficulties, boardroom instability and recent struggles near the bottom of the table.

Racing Santander, another newly promoted club, has a 26.9% chance of relegation.

Málaga, who secured promotion through the play-offs, are given a 25.3% relegation probability, while Espanyol are on 26.5%.

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While Opta's prediction puts Barcelona firmly in pole position, the numbers also underline how competitive the new LaLiga season could be.

Barcelona's 45.6% title probability gives them a significant advantage over Real Madrid, but Mourinho's return could change the dynamics of the title race.

The potential arrival of Rodri would also strengthen Barcelona's midfield as they attempt to maintain their domestic dominance and end their long wait for another Champions League triumph.

With Atletico Madrid, Villarreal, Real Betis and several other clubs competing for European places, the 2026/27 LaLiga season promises another intense battle at both ends of the table.

Opta's simulations may favour Barcelona, but with 10,000 scenarios producing different outcomes, the prediction serves as a guide rather than a guarantee. The real test begins when the first ball is kicked this weekend.