Why Lionel Messi is favourite to win the Golden Boot and 2026 Ballon d'Or

Lionel Messi is on the brink of another historic achievement after inspiring Argentina to the 2026 FIFA World Cup final, with the 39-year-old now the overwhelming favourite to win both the Golden Boot and a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or.

Following Argentina's dramatic 2-1 semi-final victory over England, Messi has strengthened his grip on football's two biggest individual honours thanks to another outstanding World Cup campaign.

Although Messi did not score against England, he produced another masterclass by providing assists for Enzo Fernández and Lautaro Martínez, helping Argentina secure a place in Sunday's final against Spain.

The Argentine captain has now recorded eight goals and four assists at the tournament, making him the most productive player at the World Cup with 12 direct goal contributions.

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His performances have made him the clear favourite to finish as the tournament's top scorer.

Prediction market Kalshi currently gives Messi a 59% chance of winning the Golden Boot, while FanDuel Sportsbook lists him at -200 to finish as the competition's leading scorer.

France captain Kylian Mbappé is Messi's nearest rival after also scoring eight goals, but the French star trails the Argentine on assists, with three compared to Messi's four.

Mbappé still has an opportunity to improve his tally in France's third-place play-off against England, although uncertainty remains over whether coach Didier Deschamps will field his strongest side following their semi-final exit.

England captain Harry Kane has scored six goals and registered one assist, but sportsbooks rate him as a distant outsider at +8000, underlining the belief that the Golden Boot race is now firmly between Messi and Mbappé.

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The World Cup has also transformed the race for the 2026 Ballon d'Or.

Before the tournament, contenders such as Kylian Mbappé, Harry Kane and Barcelona sensation Lamine Yamal were all considered strong candidates.

However, Messi's extraordinary displays have seen him surge to the top of the rankings.

According to the latest betting odds, Messi is now the -125 favourite to win what would be a record-extending ninth Ballon d'Or, while Spain's teenage star Lamine Yamal sits second at +175 after helping his country reach the World Cup final.

Messi's World Cup numbers outperform rivals'.

Despite Spain's impressive run, Yamal's individual statistics fall well short of Messi's influence.

The Barcelona youngster has registered one goal and no assists throughout the tournament, while Messi has directly contributed to 12 goals, scoring eight and providing four assists.

Yamal could still strengthen his Ballon d'Or credentials with a match-winning display in the final, particularly if Spain lift the trophy.

However, Messi's consistent brilliance throughout the knockout stages has placed him firmly in the driving seat.

The World Cup has also significantly weakened the Ballon d'Or chances of several other leading contenders.

Following England's elimination, Harry Kane's odds have drifted to +650, while Mbappé has fallen to +1200 after France's semi-final defeat to Spain.

Messi, meanwhile, continues to build one of the strongest Ballon d'Or cases of his career.

Beyond his World Cup heroics, Messi also enjoyed an outstanding club season after leading Inter Miami to MLS Cup glory, adding another major trophy to an already exceptional campaign.

His club and international performances combined have strengthened his claim to football's most prestigious individual award.

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Messi first won the Ballon d'Or in 2009 and last lifted the award in 2023.

Victory over Spain in Sunday's World Cup final would likely seal an unprecedented ninth Ballon d'Or, extending his lead over long-time rival Cristiano Ronaldo, who has won the award five times.

The World Cup has further highlighted the contrast between the two legends.

While Ronaldo exited the tournament with three goals after Portugal's Round of 16 defeat to Spain, Messi is preparing for another World Cup final and stands on the verge of adding yet another remarkable chapter to one of football's greatest careers.