Explainer: What Would Happen If Iran Were to Miss the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

The ongoing military strikes conducted by the United States and Israel against Iran have intensified instability across the Middle East, creating significant geopolitical uncertainty.

The bombardment of several major Iranian cities—reportedly projected to continue for “four to five weeks” if necessary, according to U.S.

President Donald Trump — has resulted in the death of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and provoked retaliatory actions from Tehran.

Beyond the immediate humanitarian and political consequences, the crisis has also generated uncertainty surrounding this summer’s FIFA Men's World Cup, which will be hosted by the United States, Canada and Mexico.

MUST READ: Cristiano Ronaldo to undergo 'urgent tests' following muscle injury

Although the tournament may seem peripheral compared to the scale of the conflict, developments over the past 48 hours have raised legitimate questions about whether Iran will participate — and whether U.S. authorities would allow the team to enter the country.

Mattias Grafström, FIFA’s secretary general, stated on Saturday that “of course, our focus is to have a safe World Cup with everybody participating.” A source with knowledge of internal discussions indicated that, as of now, tournament plans remain unchanged.

However, Mehdi Taj, president of the Iranian football federation, expressed concern in comments to local state media, saying, "After this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope.” He added that the country’s “sports chiefs” would ultimately determine participation.

READ ALSO: GPL WK24 wrap: Hearts stumble, Kotoko frustrated as Gold Stars close in – Full Results & Table

The tournament is scheduled to begin on June 11. Iran is slated to play all three Group G matches in the United States—against New Zealand on June 15 at SoFi Stadium near Los Angeles, Belgium on June 21 at the same venue, and Egypt on June 26 at Lumen Field in Seattle.

Multiple scenarios could affect Iran’s involvement. The nation could opt to boycott the competition in response to the military strikes. Authorities may conclude that security conditions render participation unsafe. Alternatively, the U.S. government could impose restrictions.

Although a 2018 letter signed by President Trump pledged that “all eligible athletes, officials and fans from all countries around the world would be able to enter the United States without discrimination,” it remains unclear whether any binding guarantee exists.

Current travel restrictions on Iranian nationals contain limited exemptions for “any athlete or member of an athletic team, including coaches, persons performing a necessary support role, and immediate relatives, travelling for the World Cup, Olympics, or other major sporting event.”

READ MORE: Gianluca Prestianni’s Benfica career ‘over’ if racial abuse proven

Nonetheless, previous visa denials to Iranian delegates underscore that entry decisions remain subject to national security considerations.

If Iran withdraws or is excluded, FIFA regulations provide the governing body with wide discretion. Article 6 of the 2026 World Cup regulations addresses non-participation.

Regulation 6.5 states,

Regulation 6.7 further states,

READ ALSO: SONA2026: President Mahama issues stern warning to Ghanaian fans ahead of 2026 FIFA World Cup

These provisions grant FIFA two primary options: adjust Group G to accommodate three teams or appoint a replacement nation.

Identifying a substitute would be complex given the multi-stage Asian qualification process and limited preparation time. Potential alternatives could include Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, or even intercontinental playoff participants, depending on outcomes.

There is limited modern precedent for such a scenario. The last World Cup withdrawals after qualification occurred in 1950. A more recent comparison is the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, when Mexican club León was removed due to regulatory issues and replaced following a playoff.

Despite geopolitical tensions, there is currently no indication that the United States’ hosting rights are in jeopardy.

READ MORE: Club World Cup to expand to 48 teams under FIFA and UEFA agreement

FIFA has not suggested relocating matches, and no regulatory mechanism appears to compel such action. International reactions to the strikes have been varied rather than unified, reducing the likelihood of coordinated tournament boycotts.

As the situation evolves, Iran’s World Cup status remains uncertain, contingent on political decisions, regulatory authority, and broader security developments.