Fuel prices in Ghana likely to increase from May 16 – See latest projections

• Fuel prices projected to rise from May 16 despite government intervention measures.

• Petrol could hit GH¢15.80 per litre if fuel policy is not extended.

• Global oil supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran conflict are driving prices higher.

Ghanaians may have to brace for another increase in fuel prices from May 16, 2026, despite ongoing government measures aimed at easing the burden of rising global crude oil costs.

The warning comes from the Chief Executive Officer of the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies, Dr Riverson Oppong, who says prices at the pumps are expected to rise under both possible outcomes of the government’s fuel price stabilisation policy.

Speaking in an interview with JoyBusiness, Dr Oppong explained that the impact on consumers will depend on whether government decides to extend the current intervention programme beyond its expiration date on May 16.

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Under the first scenario, where the policy is extended, petrol prices are projected to increase by between 2.5% and 3% per litre, pushing prices to around GH¢14.50 per litre. Diesel prices are also expected to rise by about 1.8%, with projections placing a litre at approximately GH¢16.50.

According to him, “extending the policy will only lower the expected margin of increase at the pumps.”

However, if the intervention is not renewed, fuel prices could climb even higher. Petrol may sell at about GH¢15.80 per litre, while diesel could hit around GH¢18.05 per litre.

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Dr Oppong also addressed the pricing outlook for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), noting that market stock levels will play a major role in determining future prices.

He further cautioned against assumptions that importing petroleum products from Nigeria for local refining would automatically reduce prices at the pumps.

“There should be a clear distinction between product availability and low prices at the pumps,” he warned.

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The projected increase comes amid a sharp escalation in global fuel prices driven by the ongoing US-Iran conflict and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil shipping routes.

International benchmark Brent crude is currently trading at around $107.67 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude has crossed $101 per barrel.

Analysts say the surge follows severe supply disruptions after major Gulf oil producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, collectively cut output by about 10.5 million barrels per day in April.

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In addition, nearly 20 million barrels per day of oil and refined petroleum products that normally pass through the Strait of Hormuz have reportedly been heavily disrupted since early March, worsening supply shortages across global markets.

The pressure is also being felt across refined fuel products. Diesel and jet fuel shortages in Europe and Asia have forced many refineries to prioritise distillate production, tightening petrol supply further.