Ghana could lose 550,000 jobs to rising heat by 2040, ILO warns

• Ghana could lose the equivalent of 550,000 full-time jobs to rising workplace heat by 2040, according to an ILO report.

• Ethiopia and Senegal could also lose the equivalent of 1.78 million and 129,000 full-time jobs, respectively, with the three countries facing combined annual GDP losses of about US$67 billion.

• Agriculture and construction are among the most exposed sectors, with the ILO urging governments and employers to introduce measures such as adjusted working hours, rest breaks, shade and access to drinking water.

Ghana could lose the equivalent of 550,000 full-time jobs by 2040 as rising temperatures and workplace heat stress reduce working hours and productivity, according to new studies by the International Labour Organization (ILO).

The projection, which is based on a low-emissions pathway, forms part of a wider assessment covering Ghana, Ethiopia and Senegal, where heat stress could collectively account for approximately 2.46 million full-time equivalent jobs in lost working time by 2040.

As reported by Graphic Online, the studies also estimate that the three countries could suffer combined annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) losses of approximately US$67 billion by 2040 compared with the historical reference period.

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Of the projected employment losses, Ethiopia is expected to record the highest figure, with approximately 1.78 million full-time equivalent jobs affected. Ghana follows with 550,000, while Senegal could lose the equivalent of 129,000 full-time jobs.

The economic impact is also expected to vary across the countries. Ethiopia could record annual GDP losses of US$33.3 billion, followed by Ghana with US$23.2 billion and Senegal with US$10.5 billion.

The findings indicate that workplace heat stress is already affecting economic activity and employment in the three countries.

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In 2023, Ethiopia recorded more than one million additional full-time equivalent jobs lost to workplace heat stress compared with an average year during the historical reference period.

Ghana recorded the equivalent of more than 345,000 additional full-time jobs lost during the same period, while Senegal experienced nearly 72,000 additional full-time equivalent job losses.

Agriculture accounted for around three-quarters of the estimated working-time losses in Ethiopia and approximately two-thirds in Ghana. In Senegal, the impact was particularly concentrated in services and agriculture.

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The ILO studies identify agriculture and construction as some of the sectors most exposed to workplace heat stress because of the physically demanding nature of the work and the high number of people employed outdoors.

However, the effects extend beyond these industries, affecting manufacturing, transport, trade and services, as well as workers and businesses in the informal economy.

For workers who depend on daily earnings, reduced working hours could also mean lower incomes, particularly when they cannot afford to stop working during the hottest periods of the day.

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Fanfan Rwanyindo Kayirangwa, ILO Regional Director for Africa, said the findings show that heat stress is no longer just an environmental concern but also an employment, health and economic issue.

She added that protecting people from heat also means protecting livelihoods, enterprises and the resilience of national economies.

The studies identify several practical measures that governments and employers can introduce to reduce the impact of rising temperatures on workers.

These include adjusting working hours to avoid the hottest periods of the day, introducing appropriate work-and-rest schedules, providing shaded areas, ensuring access to drinking water and cooling facilities, and strengthening workplace heat monitoring.

The ILO also recommends improving occupational safety and health standards and educating workers about the symptoms and risks of heat stress.

Social protection is another important consideration, particularly for informal-sector workers who may be unable to reduce their working hours without losing essential income.

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The studies covering Ethiopia, Ghana and Senegal form part of a six-country research initiative that also includes Lebanon, the Maldives and Sri Lanka.

Commissioned by the ILO with support from the Climate Vulnerable Forum and the Vulnerable 20 Finance Ministers, the research received funding through the CVF-V20 Joint Multi-Donor Fund.

The studies combine climate projections, labour market data and economic modelling to assess the current and future effects of workplace heat stress on productivity, employment and national economies.