Super El Niño: Full list of 50 countries where heat could kill over 850,000 people as Nigeria leads

• Super El Niño could contribute to 857,400 additional heat-related deaths worldwide by March 2027.

• Nigeria tops the projections with 56,100 deaths, followed by India with 55,200.

• The figures are estimates, not confirmed fatalities.

The Lab’s El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker estimates that about 372,900 additional heat-related deaths could occur worldwide between October 2026 and March 2027 as unusually high temperatures associated with the climate phenomenon continue to affect countries across the globe.

The latest projection forms part of a wider estimate of 857,400 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026, when the current El Niño event began, and March 2027. The researchers say the projected toll is concentrated largely in the Global South, with countries in Africa and Asia facing some of the highest risks.

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Nigeria is expected to record the highest number of additional heat-related deaths during the six-month forecast period, with an estimated 56,100. India follows closely with 55,200, while Indonesia is projected to record 29,300.

Brazil ranks fourth, with an estimated 19,500 additional heat-related deaths, while Sudan completes the top five with 14,700.

The figures represent estimated additional deaths associated with temperature changes compared with the historical average. They are not confirmed fatalities or projections of the total number of deaths from all causes during the period.

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The updated estimates are considerably higher than those published in the Climate Impact Lab’s September 2026 report, which projected 451,000 additional heat-related deaths between June 2026 and February 2027.

The researchers attribute much of the increase to two changes in the latest assessment. The forecast period has been extended to include March 2027, while observed temperatures for August and September have replaced earlier forecasts. Both months were significantly warmer than anticipated, with August recording the warmest August on record and September the second warmest.

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El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon involving unusually warm surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. It influences atmospheric circulation and can disrupt normal weather patterns, contributing to higher temperatures and changes in rainfall across different parts of the world.

The current event has been described as a Super El Niño because of its intensity. Its effects include prolonged periods of unusually high temperatures, increasing the risk of heat-related illnesses and deaths.

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Extreme heat can cause dehydration, heat exhaustion and heatstroke. It can also worsen existing cardiovascular and respiratory conditions, particularly among older people, young children and those with underlying health conditions.

People who work outdoors, live in poorly ventilated homes or lack reliable access to drinking water and cooling facilities may face additional risks.

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The Climate Impact Lab’s estimates draw on research examining the relationship between temperature and mortality, while accounting for differences in local climates, vulnerability and communities’ ability to adapt. For months that have already elapsed, the researchers use temperature data from the ERA5 global reanalysis. Their forecasts for upcoming months draw on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ SEAS5 seasonal prediction system.

The researchers say the projections can help governments, humanitarian organisations and policymakers identify where interventions are most urgently needed.

Recommended measures include establishing heat-warning systems, expanding access to drinking water, setting up cooling centres and strengthening healthcare services to respond to heat-related illnesses.

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Governments can also introduce protections for outdoor workers, including access to shaded rest areas, drinking water and breaks during periods of extreme heat.

The Climate Impact Lab’s El Niño Heat Mortality Tracker is designed to provide updated estimates and identify vulnerable regions, helping decision-makers direct resources towards interventions that could save lives. The Lab says the tracker will be updated monthly through the end of the El Niño event.

The latest projections underline the importance of preparing for extreme heat before its effects become more severe. Although the figures remain estimates and may change as new observations and forecasts become available, they indicate the potential public health burden facing countries expected to record the highest additional heat-related deaths.

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