Fact-Check: Is Lagos really bigger than the whole of Ghana?

A recent chat between Ghanaian musician King Promise and Nigerian content creator Peller has reignited one of West Africa’s favourite debates — Ghana versus Lagos. King Promise’s claim that “the whole of Ghana is not bigger than Lagos” has set social media ablaze, sparking arguments over geography, pride, and perception.

The award-winning musician said:

The whole of Ghana is not bigger than Lagos. Lagos is bigger than the whole of Ghana. And it's not even the capital of Nigeria.

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How True Is King Promise's claim?

This article examines whether Lagos truly surpasses Ghana in size, exploring the statistical evidence and unpacking the reasons behind this persistent misconception.

The Verdict: Geographically Inaccurate

When measured by land mass, the claim fails scrutiny entirely. The confusion typically stems from conflating distinct measurements: territorial area, demographic figures, population concentration, and financial productivity. Each metric tells a different story.

Ghana encompasses roughly 238,540 square kilometres (92,101 square miles), rendering it comparable in size to the United Kingdom. Excluding aquatic features, the nation's terrestrial area measures approximately 227,533 square kilometres.

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Consider these proportions: Ghana's north-south axis extends roughly 670 kilometres from Cape Three Points on its southern coastline to its northern boundaries, whilst spanning approximately 297 kilometres east to west. The nation shares frontiers with Togo eastward, Côte d'Ivoire westward, Burkina Faso northward, and the Atlantic Ocean southward.

Lagos State occupies 3,577 square kilometres, establishing it as Nigeria's smallest administrative region despite possessing the highest population concentration. Alternative sources occasionally cite 1,292 square miles (3,345 square kilometres), though official records predominantly reference the larger figure.

Crucially, water features, lagoons, tributaries, and coastal channels, constitute 22% of Lagos State's total territory, further diminishing the actual terrestrial space available.

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The designation "Greater Metropolitan Lagos" or "Lagos Megacity Region" encompasses an additional continuously developed area of 1,535.4 square kilometres (592.8 square miles), extending into neighbouring Ogun State.

Combining these figures:

Lagos State: 3,577 sq km

Greater Metropolitan extension: 1,535.4 sq km

Combined total: approximately 5,112 sq km

This aggregate represents merely 2.1% of Ghana's total territory.

The Indisputable Mathematics

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The numbers speak unambiguously:

Ghana: 238,540 square kilometres

Lagos State: 3,577 square kilometres

Ghana exceeds Lagos State by approximately 66.7 times in territorial extent. Even incorporating the entire Greater Lagos Metropolitan Region (roughly 5,112 sq km), Ghana remains approximately 46.6 times larger.

Put simply: Lagos State could theoretically fit within Ghana's borders approximately 67 times, with considerable space remaining.

Understanding the Misconception

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Several interconnected factors perpetuate this geographical confusion:

1. Demographic Ambiguity

Population figures present Lagos's most legitimate claim to comparability with Ghana.

Census.gov data indicates Ghana's population at 35.3 million, whilst Lagos records 17.2 million inhabitants. However, Lagos's demographic statistics remain contentious.

The 2006 federal census suggested the conurbation housed approximately 9 million residents, though Lagos State authorities disputed this figure, publishing alternative data placing the Lagos Metropolitan Area population at roughly 16 million. By 2022, estimates for greater Lagos approached 28 million.

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Should the higher projections (25–28 million) prove accurate, Lagos might indeed possess comparable demographic weight to Ghana's 35.3 million, though this concerns population rather than geographical magnitude.

Social media respondents swiftly corrected the record: "Lagos isn't bigger than Ghana geographically, it's more populated than Ghana, I mean Lagos population is more than that of the whole Ghana" and "Somebody tell King Promise that population size and land size are different; we don't determine the size of a place by its population."

2. Population Concentration

Lagos maintains a population density of approximately 4,907 persons per square kilometre, potentially reaching 20,000 persons per square kilometre in the metropolis's most concentrated districts.

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Conversely, Ghana's overall population density measures considerably lower at roughly 121–313 persons per square kilometre, varying by calculation methodology.

This dramatic disparity creates an impression of Lagos being "larger" because:

Inhabitants occupy far less space per capita

The constructed environment exhibits greater intensity and continuity

Traffic congestion and urban expansion create a perception of endlessness

Lagos's energy and activity overwhelm most Ghanaian urban centres

Navigating Lagos's congested thoroughfares through Ikeja, Surulere, or Lagos Island certainly evokes immensity,and regarding human density and activity, this perception holds validity. Nevertheless, subjective experience differs markedly from objective geography.

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3. Financial Productivity

Lagos State generates one of Africa's largest economies, with a gross domestic product of $84 billion, rivalling Ghana's $75 billion, Angola's $70 billion, and Ethiopia's $93 billion.

That a single Nigerian state produces nearly equivalent GDP to an entire nation reinforces perceptions of Lagos being "bigger". Economically speaking, Lagos's influence vastly exceeds its territorial footprint.

4. Urban Continuity and Megacity Classification

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Lagos qualifies as a megacity, amongst the world's fastest-expanding urban zones. The metropolitan area encompasses Ikeja (the state capital), Agege, and Mushin, with urban development extending over 25 miles (40 kilometres) northwest of Lagos Island.

This uninterrupted urban expansion, with minimal rural interruptions between districts, creates an impression of boundless cityscape. Ghana, by contrast, features substantial rural territories separating its urban centres, which psychologically renders the country less "developed" or "substantial" to casual observers.

5. Cultural and Media Prominence

Lagos serves as Nigeria's cultural epicentre and the nucleus of Nollywood, Afrobeats, and West African entertainment. Its cultural influence transcends its physical parameters considerably. When global audiences contemplate Nigerian or broader West African urban culture, Lagos frequently dominates their imagination.

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This disproportionate cultural presence contributes to perceptions that Lagos exceeds its actual physical dimensions. Ghana, despite maintaining a vibrant entertainment sector and cultural landscape, doesn't project equivalent international cultural dominance.

Comparative Metrics Analysis

A comprehensive comparison illuminates where Lagos genuinely competes with Ghana:

Beyond Size: What Truly Matters

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The analysis "Many Nigerians Don't Know Ghana Is Larger Than Southern Nigeria" makes a salient observation: "What makes a country tick is neither landmass nor population." It references Qatar (11,627 sq km), which hosted the World Cup despite being roughly 20 times smaller than Ghana, and Singapore (approximately 700 sq km), amongst the world's most developed nations despite equalling roughly the size of Lekki peninsula in Lagos.

Obsession with dimensions, whether territorial or demographic, frequently obscures more significant indicators:

Development Metrics of Greater Significance

Human Development Index: How effectively does the location serve residents' needs?

Literacy Rates: What proportion can read and write proficiently?

Healthcare Accessibility: How many possess access to quality medical services?

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Infrastructure Standards: How efficient are transport networks, electricity, water, and public systems?

Educational Outcomes: What quality of education prevails?

Economic Opportunities: How readily can individuals establish businesses or secure employment?

Governance and Transparency: How accountable and efficient are governmental institutions?

Security Standards: How safe do inhabitants feel daily?

Both Ghana and Lagos demonstrate respective strengths and weaknesses across these metrics. Lagos State maintains Nigeria's highest Human Development Index and literacy rate, which proves impressive. However, Ghana has achieved substantial progress in governance, democratic stability, and human development.

Fact-Checking King Promise's Assertions

Let's examine each specific claim:

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Claim 1: "The whole of Ghana is not bigger than Lagos."

Verdict: FALSE. Ghana exceeds Lagos State by approximately 66.7 times in territorial area.

Claim 2: "Lagos is bigger than the whole of Ghana."

Verdict: FALSE geographically. MISLEADING regarding population (Lagos may approach Ghana's population but hasn't definitively exceeded it based on reliable data).

Claim 3: "Ghana is 24 million people."

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Verdict: FALSE. Ghana's population measures approximately 35.3 million, not 24 million. King Promise significantly underestimated by 11.3 million.

Claim 4: "Nigeria is what, 300 million people."

Verdict: FALSE. Nigeria's population stands at 242.8 million, not 300 million. King Promise overestimated by approximately 57 million.

Claim 5: "And it's not even the capital of Nigeria."

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Verdict: TRUE. Lagos served as Nigeria's capital until 1991 when federal government relocated to Abuja. Nevertheless, Lagos remains Nigeria's economic and cultural capital.

The video clip rapidly circulated online, with respondents swiftly correcting the record: "Lagos isn't bigger than Ghana instead, it is more populated than Ghana. Ghana's population is about 34m, whereas Lagos is over 70m" (though this commenter also exaggerated Lagos's figures). Another observed: "Lagos rather has a higher population density compared to Ghana. In terms of land size, Ghana is larger."

The incident underscores a broader challenge: the tendency towards grandiose claims without verifying fundamental facts, and misinformation's velocity in contemporary social media environments.

If Lagos doesn't exceed Ghana geographically, why does it project such magnitude and significance?

1. Unparalleled Urban Intensity

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Lagos represents amongst Earth's most intense urban experiences. Lagos has experienced remarkable expansion, reaching 21 million from merely 1.4 million as recently as 1970. This represents a 1,400% population increase within 50 years—an almost unprecedented urbanisation rate.

2. Economic Powerhouse Status

Lagos generates approximately 25% of Nigeria's entire GDP despite constituting Nigeria's smallest state territorially. This economic concentration creates enormous wealth, infrastructure investment, and commercial activity that makes the city subjectively feel much larger than its geographical footprint.

3. African and Global Connectivity Hub

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Lagos holds classification as a Medium-Port Megacity with amongst the continent's largest and busiest seaports, establishing it as a major financial centre with Africa's fourth-highest GDP.

4. Continuous Urban Expansion

Unlike cities with defined boundaries and surrounding rural territories, Lagos has experienced continuous urban sprawl. The metropolitan area extends beyond 25 miles (40 kilometres) northwest of Lagos Island, creating a seemingly infinite urban landscape.

5. Migration Destination

Lagos serves as Nigeria's and West Africa's melting pot. Migration originates from throughout Nigeria and neighbouring West African nations including Benin Republic, Ghana, Togo, Ivory Coast, Burkina Faso, Senegal, Mali, Niger, Sierra Leone, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, The Gambia, and Liberia.

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This perpetual influx of opportunity-seekers creates a dynamic, perpetually expanding city that genuinely feels like West Africa's epicentre.

Timber and forest products

So, does Lagos exceed Ghana in size? Absolutely not—not remotely when discussing geographic dimensions.

Ghana surpasses Lagos State by approximately 66.7 times in territorial area. Even incorporating the entire Greater Lagos Metropolitan Area spanning into Ogun State, Ghana remains approximately 46.6 times larger.

The confusion emerges when people conflate different measurements—dimensions, population, population density, economic output, and cultural influence. Lagos proves extraordinary in numerous respects, but it isn't geographically larger than Ghana. Not even approximately.

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The essential lesson: When advancing claims about countries, cities, or regions, verify fundamental facts first. Population figures and territorial area constitute easily verifiable statistics. Spreading misinformation, even unintentionally, perpetuates false narratives that shape perceptions of nations and regions.

Both Ghana and Lagos (and Nigeria comprehensively) possess incredible strengths and contributions towards Africa's development. Rather than engaging in false claims about dimensions, perhaps energy would be better invested celebrating what renders each location unique and identifying cooperation opportunities for mutual benefit.

After all, as the adage reminds us: it's not the size of the dog in the fight, but the size of the fight in the dog.

And both Ghana and Lagos possess abundant fight within them.